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Chicago Bears' Kahlil Bell (32) fumbles the ball as he is hit by Green Bay Packers' Clay Matthews (52) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 25, 2011, in Green Bay, Wis. The Bears recovered the ball. (AP Photo/Jeffrey …
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Updated: Sunday, 15 Apr 2012, 2:43 PM CDT
Published : Sunday, 15 Apr 2012, 2:43 PM CDT
GREEN BAY - Like any good chart, the origins of the “NFL Draft Trade Chart,” are kind of murky. Many credit Jimmie Johnson, during his time coaching the Dallas Cowboys, as the creator of the colossus of comparisons. It has different names, iterations, and, doubtlessly, modifications depending on which war room it’s tacked up in.
The ‘original’ draft chart, which is reproduced with slight variations across the internet, assigns a numeric value to every pick in the NFL draft, from number one to Mr. Irrelevant. For the sake of this article, we’re using ProFootballTalk’s iteration, found here . The point-value differences from this to other charts found online are pretty slight.
(It’s worth noting, before we go any further, that the new CBA slots newly drafted rookie salaries which, in the eyes of many, makes higher picks in the first round more valuable (since missing on a top 5 pick no longer puts your team in such financial distress). It’s reasonable to think if the “NFL Draft Trade Chart” exists in any war rooms this year, it would be altered.)
Ted Thompson and the Packers made three draft-day trades in 2011, one in 2010 and one in 2009. Looking back, the Packers are likely pretty happy with how these deals ultimately turned out.
Here are the results, with the players picked, the corresponding chart ‘points,’ and what players those picks ultimately turned into.
2011 First Trade
Trade with the Broncos
Green Bay received: Denver’s 5th round pick (141 overall) and 6th round pick (186 overall)
Denver received: Green Bay’s 4th round pick (129 overall) and 7th round pick (204 overall)
Green Bay ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 52.5
Denver ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 52.8
Green Bay players picked: DJ Williams (tight end, Arkansas); DJ Smith (linebacker, Appalachian State)
Denver players picked: Julius Thomas (tight end, Portland State); Virgil Green (tight end, Nevada)
Analysis: Perhaps the chart is real, given just how close these two point values come to one another. The Packers loved DJ Smith, getting a lot of time at ILB with injuries to AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop throughout the season. The team also raved about his ability to wear the defensive transmitter and relay signals while Hawk was out. DJ Williams caught just two regular season passes for the Packers, but played a lot on special teams. Neither Thomas nor Green made much of an offensive splash as rookies for the Broncos.
2011 Second Trade
Trade with the 49ers
Green Bay received: SF’s 6th round pick (174 overall) and 7th round pick (231 overall)
San Francisco received: Green Bay’s 5th round pick (163 overall)
Green Bay ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 27.8 (**the ‘Draft Chart only goes through 224 picks since it doesn’t factor in compensatory picks, so we gave the 231st pick 2 points, the same as the final pick on the draft chart)
San Francisco ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 21.8
Green Bay players picked: none, traded both picks in third trade
San Francisco player picked: Daniel Kilgore (guard, Appalachian State)
Analysis: The Packers flipped these picks to the Dolphins. Draft chart-wise, they got the better of San Francisco; but then went on to give away some chart-value on their trade with Miami.
Daniel Kilgore appeared in just one game as a rookie for the 49ers. They moved him to tackle.
2011 Third Trade
Trade with the Dolphins
Green Bay received: Miami’s 6th round pick (179 overall) and 7th round pick (218 overall)
Miami received: Green Bay’s 6th round pick (174 overall) and 7th round pick (231 overall) [both acquired in earlier trade from San Francisco)
Green Bay ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 24
Miami ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 27.8 (**the ‘Draft Chart only goes through 224 picks since it doesn’t factor in compensatory picks, so we gave the 231st pick 2 points, the same as the final pick on the draft chart)
Green Bay players picked: Caleb Schlauderaff (guard, Utah); Ryan Taylor (tight end, North Carolina)
Miami players picked: Charles Clay (fullback, Tulsa); Frank Kearse (defensive tackle, Alabama A&M)
Analysis: The Packers best pick in this group was Ryan Taylor, a special teams ace in his rookie season. He has one career catch, a touchdown, against the Raiders. Green Bay traded Schlauderaff to the New York Jets for a conditional pick.
The Dolphins put Charles Clay to work immediately. He became the team’s starting fullback, and at season’s end, was the only true fullback on the roster. Clay helped Reggie Bush to his first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. The Panthers signed Frank Kearse off the Dolphins’ practice squad. He had six tackles and half a sack for Carolina.
2010 Only Trade
Trade with Eagles
Green Bay received: Philadelphia’s 3rd round pick (71 overall)
Philadelphia received: Green Bay’s 3rd round pick (86 overall) and 4th round pick (122 overall)
Green Bay ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 235
Philadelphia ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 210
Green Bay players picked: Morgan Burnett (safety, Georgia Tech)
picked: Daniel Te’o-Nasheim (defensive end, Washington); Mike Kafka (quarterback, Northwestern)
Analysis: The Packers used a fourth round pick to move up just 15 spots, but according to the draft chart, got the better of the deal. After his rookie year was cut short by injuries (though he started four games), Burnett assumed a starting safety role in 2011. He didn’t miss a game this past season despite a broken bone in his hand, intercepting three passes, forcing two fumbles and recovering two more.
Kafka spent this past season as the third string quarterback behind Michael Vick and Vince Young. Daniel Te’o-Nasheim was signed by the Bucs off the Eagles’ practice squad last season.
2009 Only Trade
Trade with Patriots
Green Bay received: Patriots 1st round pick (26 overall) and 5th round pick (162 overall)
New England received: Packers 2nd round pick (41 overall) and two 3rd round picks (73 and 83 overall)
Green Bay ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 726.6
New England ‘Draft Chart’ points received: 890
Green Bay players picked: Clay Matthews (linebacker, Southern Cal); Jamon Meredith (tackle, South Carolina)
New England players picked: Darius Butler (cornerback, Connecticut); Brandon Tate (receiver, North Carolina); the Patriots traded the 73rd overall pick to Jacksonville for a 2010 second round pick and the Jaguars’ 2009 7th round pick, which they used on receiver Julian Edelman
Analysis: At first glance, and based on the draft chart points, the Packers appear to have overpaid to move back into the first round (they had already selected BJ Raji 9th overall) to get Clay Matthews. Much like their current situation, the Packers felt like they needed to upgrade defensively. They partnered with another team known for shrewd deals involving draft picks; but ultimately, it’s hard to argue the Packers didn’t get the better of the deal. Matthews has been one of the league’s best pass-rushers since his arrival. Jamon Meredith was signed off Green Bay’s practice squad by Buffalo in 2009. He’s currently with Tampa Bay.